Wharton Now Sees Social Security Lasting Longer
For years, the Penn Wharton Budget Model at the University of Pennsylvania projected earlier Social Security depletion dates than the government did.
This month, for the first time, they flipped.
What the New Wharton Forecast Actually Shows
The Penn Wharton Budget Model now projects that Social Security's Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund — the one most retirement beneficiaries rely on — will deplete in February 2033.
The official trustees report, released June 9, 2026, projected depletion in the fourth quarter of 2032 — a full quarter earlier.
If the two Social Security trust funds are treated as combined — OASI plus Disability Insurance — PWBM puts depletion at February 2035, compared to the trustees' forecast of third-quarter 2034.
The gap is small. A few months. But the direction has reversed.
CNBC, which received the Wharton analysis exclusively, noted that PWBM's independent model had previously given gloomier forecasts than the government's — and that the gap "has closed and slightly reversed," according to the report's own language.
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Why the Dates Differ — and Why It Matters
The Wharton model, produced by analyst Seul Ki (Sophie) Shin under the direction of Kent Smetters, differs from the trustees' assumptions on fertility and mortality.
PWBM projects lower costs than the trustees through the mid-2050s — by as much as 1.3 percentage points of payroll in 2050 — which is what pushes the depletion date slightly later.
After roughly 2060, PWBM's cost projections cross above the trustees' and remain higher, which is why its 75-year shortfall estimate of 4.65% of taxable payroll is slightly larger despite showing later near-term depletion.
Neither forecast is comforting. The direction of travel is the same.
The official SSA trustees report confirms that Social Security currently provides monthly benefits to approximately 71 million Americans, and that the program provides the majority of income for 43% of seniors, according to AARP.
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The Number That Does Not Change
Depletion does not mean bankruptcy.
When the trust funds run dry, incoming payroll taxes will continue to fund benefits — but at a reduced level.
PWBM projects that 86% of scheduled benefits would be payable at the point of combined fund depletion, falling to 60% by 2100.
The trustees project 83% payable at depletion, declining to 65% in 2100.
Neither model requires Congress to act to keep the program paying out anything. But both make clear that a meaningful cut — roughly 14% to 17% — becomes automatic at the moment of depletion without legislative action.
Closing the gap entirely would require raising the 12.4% payroll tax to approximately 17.1%, or cutting benefits by a similar proportion, according to Wharton's own analysis.
That calculation has been known for years.
Congress has not acted. It has known about this problem for decades, as Shai Akabas, vice president of economic policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center, noted following the June 9 trustees report.
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A Few Extra Months — and a Structural Warning
The unique story in PWBM's June 2026 report is not the extra time it finds.
It is the reversal itself: a model that has historically been more pessimistic than the government's own actuaries now showing a slightly better near-term picture — while simultaneously projecting a larger long-term deficit.
The extra few months buy no additional time for Congress to act, given the pace at which reform proposals have historically moved through Washington.
What the Wharton shift does confirm is that demographic assumptions — particularly fertility and mortality rates — can move the depletion timeline meaningfully in either direction, and that no single forecast should be treated as settled.
For the 71 million Americans currently receiving Social Security benefits, or the millions more approaching retirement age, the policy question remains unchanged: the trust funds will be exhausted this decade, and no structural fix has been passed.
Key Takeaways
- The Penn Wharton Budget Model now projects Social Security's OASI trust fund depletes in February 2033 — one quarter later than the official trustees' Q4 2032 forecast.
- The combined OASI and DI fund depletion date is now projected at February 2035 by PWBM, versus Q3 2034 by the trustees.
- This is the first time PWBM has projected later depletion than the trustees — reversing years of consistently gloomier forecasts.
- At depletion, PWBM projects 86% of scheduled benefits would remain payable, falling to 60% by 2100.
- Closing the long-term funding gap would require raising the payroll tax from 12.4% to approximately 17.1%, or equivalent benefit reductions.
- Social Security currently serves approximately 71 million Americans, providing the majority of income for 43% of seniors.
Sources
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Tom Bennett covers cryptocurrency, stocks, and macroeconomic trends. With a background in economics, he delivers sharp analysis on the stories moving markets.
