Kevin Warsh Holds Rates in First Fed Meeting
Kevin Warsh chaired his first Federal Reserve meeting on June 16–17 and left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%.
The rate hold was unanimous. What came with it was not.
The Dot Plot Turned — and That Told the Story
In an unusually short policy statement, the Fed dropped language that had previously suggested its next move would be a rate cut.
Nine of the twelve voting officials on the Federal Open Market Committee projected at least one rate increase this year, according to the updated Summary of Economic Projections released Wednesday.
Six of those nine supported two or more hikes.
NPR reported that this marks a sharp reversal from March, when no FOMC member had pencilled in a hike and the committee's median projection was for a single cut in 2026.
The shift reflects inflation at its highest level in more than three years, compounded by elevated energy prices that have persisted since the Strait of Hormuz crisis.
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What Warsh Did — and Didn't — Say
Warsh held his press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET on June 17, his first public statement as chair after a policy decision.
He did not submit his own interest rate forecast to the dot plot — an unusual step that CBS News reported analysts had anticipated as a signal that he intended to preserve his own flexibility.
PBS NewsHour noted that the brevity of the official statement likely reflects Warsh's previously stated view that the Fed has historically commented too broadly on the economy.
At his swearing-in on May 22, Warsh pledged a "reform-oriented Federal Reserve" focused on integrity and policy discipline.
He has also said he favoured "messier meetings" — an explicit contrast with the structured communication style of his predecessor Jerome Powell, who remained on the board as a governor and voted in favour of holding rates Wednesday.
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The Position Trump Put Him In
Trump nominated Warsh specifically to push rates lower.
The president confirmed as much in December 2025, when he said he would only appoint a Fed chair who agreed with him on cutting rates.
Warsh was confirmed on May 13, 2026, in a 54-45 vote — the most divisive confirmation in Federal Reserve history — largely along party lines, with Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman the sole Democrat to support him.
Al Jazeera reported that at his swearing-in, Trump said he wanted Warsh "to be totally independent" — a statement that itself signals how complicated the politics of Fed independence have become.
Nine officials now project rate increases. The president wants cuts. Warsh has promised independence.
Those three facts do not yet resolve.
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What Changes at the Fed Under Warsh
Warsh has signalled substantive changes in how the Fed operates, beyond just the rate outlook.
He has criticised the practice of holding press conferences after every policy meeting — a practice Powell institutionalised — and has said he aims to emulate former chair Alan Greenspan's more selective communications approach.
Bank of America U.S. economist Aditya Bhave noted ahead of Wednesday's meeting that the dot plot could show the Fed on hold for the rest of 2026, but added that at least three members may project rate hikes — a number that turned out to be nine.
The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for late July.
Whether Warsh holds another press conference then — or moves to a more selective schedule — is now one of the clearest tests of how different this Fed intends to look from the one Trump inherited.
Key Takeaways
- Kevin Warsh held the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75% in a unanimous vote at his first FOMC meeting, June 16–17, 2026.
- Nine of twelve voting FOMC members now project at least one rate hike in 2026 — a reversal from March, when none had projected a hike.
- Warsh did not submit his own dot plot forecast, preserving personal flexibility on the rate path.
- The Fed's policy statement was unusually short, dropping prior language suggesting a cut was the next likely move.
- Warsh was confirmed 54-45 on May 13, the most divisive Fed chair vote in history; his term began May 22.
- Trump nominated Warsh specifically for rate cuts. Persistent inflation above a three-year high has put that timeline under pressure.
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Business & Finance Editor
Sarah Collins reports on markets, Wall Street, corporate news, and the global economy. She specializes in making financial news accessible to everyday readers.
